EmailThe initial claims level declined from 432,000 for the week ending September 10 to 423,000 for the week ending September 17.
The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 418,000.
There were no special circumstances affecting the jobless claims data this week. Since the week ending August 12, the initial claims level has remained above the 410,000 upper bound of our "Recovery Zone."
With claims above the upper bound, payroll gains in excess of the 100,000 necessary to support a stable unemployment rate are unlikely. It would not surprise us to see the unemployment rate tick higher in September. The continuing claims level fell from an upwardly revised 3.755 million (from 3.726 million) for the week ending September 3 to 3.727 million for the week ending September 10 and was in-line with consensus expectations.
