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Last Update: 20-Oct-11 10:54 ET
Leading Indicators Remain Positive, No Sign of an Impending Recession
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index increased 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase in August. That was the weakest gain in the leading indicators report since it declined 0.3% in April. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase 0.3%.
Since seven of the 10 components are known prior to the release, the difference between the consensus and the actual data normally comes from the three estimated components: manufacturing orders of consumer goods, manufacturing orders of business capital, and M2 money supply.
In this case, the Conference Board expects orders of nondefense capital goods to decline substantially, which caused a -0.04 percentage point reduction in the leading indicators. Orders for consumer goods and M2 money supply were within normal ranges.
Since seven of the 10 components are known prior to the release, the difference between the consensus and the actual data normally comes from the three estimated components: manufacturing orders of consumer goods, manufacturing orders of business capital, and M2 money supply.
In this case, the Conference Board expects orders of nondefense capital goods to decline substantially, which caused a -0.04 percentage point reduction in the leading indicators. Orders for consumer goods and M2 money supply were within normal ranges.
