The S&P 500 Financial Index slipped to its worst levels in two and a half
years as the European sovereign concerns continued to apply selling pressure to
the sector. The S&P Index dipped to 148 in early trade but is showing signs of
holding 150. It is difficult to judge if this actual buying or if it is merely
short covering on the heels of commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB
President Jean Claude Trichet which were supportive of markets. Regardless, the
persecuted sector was long overdue for a bounce as we head toward earnings
season. Mixed commentary from UBS (better than expected) and DB (lowered
expectations) will keep investors guessing until Q3 numbers begin to hit wires
with JPM (10/13) kicking us off.
News of Note:
1) UBS AG at Bank of America Banking and Insurance CEO conference: Management
made the following points at the conference: Co expects to report a modest
profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter. Co's results will include a
number of notable items, including the $2.3 bln loss related to the unauthorized
trading incident in the Investment Bank; Co says the losses have been limited to
$2.3 billion. Co has reduced its funded balance sheet by more than half since
2007. Owned credit gains, in the region of CHF1.5 bln due to a substantial
widening of its credit spread, will have a positive impact on co's results. Co's
exposure to the sovereign debt of European countries rated AA and below is
limited. Its largest growth exposure to Italy is well-hedged and commensurate
with the size of Italy's economy. The aggregate net exposure to all these
countries is relatively small and not a cause for concern. Co announces net
profit attributable to shareholders for the Q3 includes a $2.3 bln loss
resulting from the unauthorized trading incident reported in September 2011.
Positive net new money in wealth management businesses expected to be broadly
similar to the second quarter of 2011. BIS tier 1 capital base expected to
remain broadly in line with the prior quarter end. Co had previously indicated
that the unauthorized trade could lead to a Q3 loss.
2) Deutsche Bank (DB) sees Q3 results for CB&S business to come in significantly
lower than expected; sees EUR900 mln of exposure to Greek debt; to make EUR250
mln impairment to Greek debt in Q3.
3) BNP Paribas (BNPQY) at BofA/Merrill Banking & Insurance Conference: Have not
completely decided a program for next year; the EUR 3 bln issuance a month has
been in advance of next year's program; says the EUR 3 bln a month issuance is
likely to continue in 2012... says it does not need to sell assets; starting to
see market interest in some portfolios; can accomplish sales with a limited
discount to the portfolios... Opinion on France- says it is a AAA rating; notes
this was reiterated over the summer; convinced the French authorities 'are
committed to taking the right measures to make the French sovereign debt solid
and sustainable'; notes Belgium seeing good growth; Italy- says has taken
significant fiscal measures to get into balance by 2013... the scenario of a
default or selective default for European countries is not plausible; believes
those who bet against it will be proven wrong by developments in the next few
weeks/months... high probability that Mutual Funds will continue to invest in
BNP given it's rating; says the bank is prepared for the worst (no return of
money funds); says funding needs short term are satisfied even without the money
market funds... says the present environment (especially with higher level of
capital needed depending on your size) that it does not see a major
consolidation and mega banks; also some liquidity constraints... says sovereigns
need to instill more confidence in its handling of debt; important that central
banks be ready to provide liquidity buffers... says banks that have insufficient
capital.
4) IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) reported activity for September and the third
quarter of 2011. ICE's futures average daily volume increased 23% in the third
quarter of 2011 over the prior year, and grew 17% for the month of September
2011 compared to September 2010. ICE's OTC energy average daily commissions
(ADC) were $1.54 million for the third quarter of 2011, up 13% from the prior
third quarter.
5) NYSE Euronext (NYX): CNBC, quoting Reuters, reports that the EU to formally
object to the NYSE Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY) deal.
6) Morgan Stanley: Ratings agency Egan Jones lowered MS to A from A+, puts on
negative outlook; concern on exposure to French banks.
7) CME Group (CME) announced September volume averaged 14.0 million contracts
per day, up 16 percent from September 2010. Total volume for September was 294
million contracts, of which 85 percent was traded electronically.






