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HOME > Our View >Page One >Repelling the Bugaboos
Page One Archive
Last Update: 18-Jan-12 09:04 ET
Repelling the Bugaboos

The U.S. equity market got off to a strong start on Tuesday, but weakened as the day progressed.  Still, it finished the day with a 0.4% gain, marking the eighth increase in the last ten sessions.

At the moment, the market is indicated to open relatively flat, maintaining a streak of resilience that appears to be predicated on an understanding that its major bugaboos are not biting as painfully as many had feared.

Sovereign bond yields in the eurozone have come down; economic reports out of China show its economy is slowing in a controlled fashion; volatility is declining; and the U.S. labor market is improving.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings, which have acted like Off in keeping the bugaboos at bay, are still growing.  That is the most important fundamental consideration and it is regularly unappreciated in a market that has been driven by headline fear.

For additional earnngs insight, be sure to read the latest installment of The Big Picture, which was published yesterday.

The fourth quarter earnings reporting period begins in earnest this week.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is today's headliner and it surprised investors with a decent-sized bottom-line beat while coming up short of top-line expectations.  Specifically, Goldman posted earnings of $1.84 per share on a 30% drop in revenues to $6.05 bln.  The Capital IQ consensus estimates were $1.22 and $6.32 bln, respectively.

With GS indicated to open 1% higher, the market looks to be focusing on the bottom-line and a remark from the company's CEO that the firm is seeing encouraging signs of economies and markets improving. 

The news from Goldman, combined with some encouraging guidance from semiconductor companies Linear Technology (LLTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), as well as reports confidence is building in Greece reaching a debt haircut deal with private creditors, has provided some early support.

Additionally, participants have taken notice of a Bloomberg.com report, citing a "person familiar with the talks," that the IMF is proposing to raise its lending capacity by $500 bln in a pre-emptive effort to manage what it sees as a potential $1 tln global financing gap in the next two years.

The pre-emptive nature of the IMF proposal is winning out over the pessimistic financing gap prediction for the time being, as the market is anxious to see officials get out ahead of problems rather than reacting to them after the bugaboo hits the windshield.

This report has generated some added market chatter this morning even though we haven't heard any specifics yet from the IMF itself.

In other developments, the Producer Price Index for December declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) on the back of a 0.8% drop in the price indexes for finished energy goods and finished consumer foods.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%).  That was the largest increase since July; however, a third of the increase stemmed from a 0.9% increase in prices for light motor trucks.  Such price gains are generally not sustainable, so we expect a moderation in these prices to temper core-PPI increases in coming months.

The Consumer Price Index will be released on Thursday.

The Industrial Production report for December (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%; prior -0.2%) will be released today at 9:15 a.m. ET.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.

The U.S. equity market got off to a strong start on Tuesday, but weakened as the day progressed. Still, it finished the day with a 0.4% gain,
 
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